What the world must do to kickstart growth
The world’s finance ministers and central bank governors gather in Washington this week for the biannual International Monetary Fund meetings. While there will not be the sense of alarm that dominated the convocations in the years after the financial crisis, the unfortunate reality is that the medium-term prospects for the global economy have not been so problematic for a long time.
世界各国的财政部长和央行行长本周将汇聚华盛顿，参加一年两次的国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund,IMF)会议。虽然届时或许不会像金融危机之后几年那样，整个会议被惊恐紧张的情绪笼罩，但不幸的事实是，全球经济发展的中期前景已经很久没有如此问题重重过了。
The IMF in its current World Economic Outlook essentially endorses the “secular stagnation” hypothesis, noting that the real interest rate necessary to bring about enough demand for full employment is likely to remain depressed for a substantial period. This is made manifest by the fact that inflation is well below target throughout the developed world and is likely to decline further this year. Without robust growth in, and greater demand from, these markets, growth in emerging economies is likely to subside. That is even without considering the political challenges facing countries as diverse as Brazil, China, South Africa, Russia and Turkey.
在最新一期《世界经济展望》(World Economic Outlook)中，IMF事实上认同了“长期增长停滞”(secular stagnation)假说，指出催生充足需求以实现充分就业所需的实际利率水平很可能在很长一段时间里保持低位。这一观点通过以下事实得到了印证——发达国家的通胀水平普遍远低于政策目标，并且今年很可能进一步下降。离开了发达国家市场的强劲增长以及需求扩张，新兴市场经济体的增长速度很可能将会放缓。而此时我们还未将巴西、中国、南非、俄罗斯和土耳其等国面临的各种政治挑战考虑在内。
In the face of inadequate demand, the world’s primary strategy is easy money. base interest rates remain at floor levels throughout the developed world and central banks signal that they are unlikely to rise soon. While the US is tapering quantitative easing, Japan continues to ease on a large scale, and the eurozone seems to be moving closer to this. This is all better than the tight money that in the 1930s made the Depression the Great Depression. But it has problems as a growth strategy.
在需求不足的情况下，世界各国的主要策略是实行宽松货币政策。发达国家的基准利率普遍维持在底部水平，这些国家的央行暗示称，利率在短期内不太可能上升。虽然美国正在收缩量化宽松的规模，但日本仍在继续大规模的量化宽松操作，而欧元区似乎正在向日本的做法靠近。这些做法都好于二十世纪三十年代导致经济萧条演变为大萧条(Great Depression)的紧缩货币政策。但作为一项经济增长战略，却存在一些问题。
We do not have a strong basis for supposing that reductions in interest rates from very low levels have a big impact on spending decisions. Any spending they do induce tends to represent a pulling forward rather than an augmentation of demand. We do know they strongly encourage economic actors to take on debt; that they place pressure on return-seeking investors to take increased risk; that they inflate asset values and reward financial activity. And we cannot confidently predict the ultimate impact on markets or the confidence of investors of the unwinding of central bank balance sheets.
我们缺乏足够的理由认为，在利率本已极低时进一步降息会对支出决策产生重大影响。由这种做法引出的支出通常代表的是需求的提前，而非需求的扩大。我们知道，降息将强烈刺激经济主体扩大负债;给寻求收益的投资者造成压力，促使其背负更高风险;导致资产价格上涨并刺激金融活动。但我们无法很有把握地预测降息对市场的最终影响，投资者对央行资产负债表规模收缩的信心是否会受降息影响也无法确判。
While monetary policies lower capital costs and so encourage spending that businesses and households judge unworthwhile even at rock-bottom interest rates, many elements of investment exist that can be increased and that also have high returns but are held back by misguided public policies.
虽然货币政策降低了资金成本，进而鼓励了支出——不过即便在利率水平降至谷底的情况下，这种支出也被企业和居民认为是不值得的——还有很多与投资的因素存在，这些因素可以被强化并能带来较高回报，但却被误入歧途的公共政策所限制了。
In the US the case for substantial investment promotion is overwhelming. Increased infrastructure spending would reduce burdens on future generations, not just by spurring growth but also by expanding the economy’s capacity and reducing deferred maintenance obligations. For example: can it be rational in the 21st century for the US air traffic control system to rely on paper tracking of flight paths?
在美国，要求施行大规模投资促进计划的呼声势不可挡。增加基础设施建设支出有助于减轻子孙后代的负担，这不仅仅是通过刺激经济增长来实现的，还通过扩大经济产能以及减少逾期养护负担来实现。例如，如果在二十一世纪，美国空中交通管理系统还依靠纸面信息跟踪飞机航线，这怎么可能是合理的呢?
Japan, with the increase in value added tax on April 1, is engaged in a major fiscal contraction at a time when it is far from clear whether last year’s progress in reversing deflation is durable or a reflection of one-off exchange rate movements. A return to stagnation and deflation could rapidly call its solvency into question. Japan takes a dangerous risk if it waits to observe the consequences before enacting fiscal and structural reform measures to promote spending.
日本正在推行一项重大的财政紧缩举措，并自4月1日起调高了增值税率，但当前远不明朗的是，日本去年在逆转通缩方面取得的成效是否能够持久，或者仅仅反映了一次性的汇率波动。重陷经济停滞和通缩状态可能迅速导致日本的偿债能力受到怀疑。如果日本先按兵不动，静观当前操作产生的影响，此后再制定旨在促进支出的财政和结构化改革措施，那么日本将因此背上较高风险。
Europe has moved back from the brink, with defaults or devaluations now remote as possibilities. But no strategy for durable growth is yet in place and the slide towards deflation continues. Strong actions to restore the banking system so that it can be a conduit for a robust flow of credit, as well as measures to promote demand in the countries of the periphery wher competitiveness challenges remain, are imperative.
欧洲已经从危机的边缘挺了过来，债券违约或者汇率贬值现在仅仅是一种遥远的可能。但欧洲目前还没有提出能够实现可持续增长的战略，滑向通缩的趋势也仍在持续。欧洲目前必须要做的是，采取强力行动恢复银行体系正常运转，使其能够成为传导稳健信贷资金流的通道，并采取措施刺激欧洲外围国家的需求，这些国家的竞争实力仍然面临挑战。
If emerging markets’ capital inflows fall off substantially, and so they move further towards being net exporters, it is hard to see wher in the developed world can take up the slack by accepting trade balance deterioration. So measures to bolster capital flows and exports to emerging markets are essential. Most important are political steps to reassure about populist threats in a number of countries, such as wher authoritarian governments give signs of disregarding contracts and property rights, and provide investor protection and backstop finance. In this regard passage by the US Congress of authorisation for the IMF to enhance its ability to provide backstop finance, is imperative.
如果新兴市场国家的资本流入规模大幅缩减，继而向净出口国更靠近一步，很难想出有哪些发达国家能够通过放任自身贸易逆差恶化，来吸收本应流向新兴市场国家的资金。因此，采取措施促进向新兴市场国家的资金流动和产品出口非常重要。更重要的是采取政治举措，消除多个国家存在的民粹主义威胁——例如某些国家的威权政府所表现出的蔑视合同契约以及财产权利的迹象——并向投资者提供保护和担保融资。在这个方面，美国国会通过对IMF的授权，使IMF能够增强提供担保融资的能力至关重要。
Creative consideration should also be given to ways of mobilising the trillions of dollars in public assets held by central banks and sovereign wealth funds largely in the form of safe liquid assets to promote growth.
还应运用创新思维，思考如何盘活央行以及主权财富基金所持有的数万亿美元公共资产，以促进经济增长。这些资产大多为非常安全的高流动性资产。
In a globalised economy, the impact of these steps taken together is likely to be substantially greater than the sum of their individual impacts. And the consequences of national policy failures are likely to cascade. That is why a global growth strategy framed to resist secular stagnation rather than just muddle through with the palliative of easy money should be this week’s agenda.
在一个全球化的经济体中，这些举措一起施行所产生的效果很可能将远远超过它们单独施行的效果之和。而一个国家的政策失误所导致的后果也很可能如瀑布倾泻般难以控制。正因为此，本周的IMF会议应将制定抵御长期增长停滞的全球性增长战略作为重要议题，而非仅仅通过施行宽松货币政策这种治标不治本的手段来勉强应付。
The writer is Charles W Eliot university professor at Harvard and a former US Treasury secretary
注：本文作者为美国哈佛大学(Harvard)查尔斯•W•艾略特大学教授(Charles W. Eliot University Professor)，曾任美国财政部长。
查看更多关于【双语新闻】的文章
