A volcanic eruption on New Zealand’s White Island killed at least 16 people on Dec 9. EPA
On the afternoon of Dec 9, 47 tourists were hiking on New Zealand’s White Island, admiring its barren surface. The island itself is the tip of an undersea volcano, and it presents a rare, almost alien scene to visitors.
12月9日下午，47名游客正在新西兰怀特岛火山远足，欣赏荒芜的地表景观。该岛屿其实是一座海底火山的峰顶，游客们能观赏到几乎如同外太空一般的罕见景色。
At 2:11 pm, however, seemingly without warning, the volcano erupted, bringing the tour – and at least 16 lives – to an abrupt end. Twenty-three of the tourists were lucky enough to get rescued, including some injured people, according to the Guardian. The rest are still missing.
但就在当天下午2时11分，该火山似乎毫无预警地喷发了，现场旅行团中至少有16人当场丧生。据《卫报》报道，23名游客幸运获救，包括数名受伤游客。其余游客仍下落不明。
The tragedy has raised all kinds of questions, the most obvious being: “Why didn’t anyone see it coming?”
这场悲剧引发了各种各样的疑问，最显而易见的是：“为什么没人预见火山喷发呢？”
The truth is that even though volcanic eruptions are generally more predictable than earthquakes – there are signs like tremors and gas releases – it’s still very difficult to forecast eruptions. A big reason is that every volcano is different.
事实上，尽管火山喷发总体而言比地震更可预见 —— 会有晃动、气体释放等征兆 —— 但火山喷发依然难以预测。一大原因是每座火山都完全不同。
“They may all play by the same rules, but each player has its own unique style,” science journalist Robin Andrews wrote on Forbes.
“它们或许都遵循着同样的规律，但每座火山都有其独特的风格，”科学记者罗宾·安德鲁斯在《福布斯》杂志上写道。
For example, some volcanoes spend most of their lifetimes doing very little, while some are active all the time. White Island belongs to the latter group.
比如，一些火山大多数时间都不太活跃，还有一些火山则长年处于活跃期。怀特岛就属于后者。
In fact, on Nov 18, GeoNet, the science agency that monitors volcanoes and earthquakes in New Zealand, had raised the alert level on White Island from “1” to “2” – with “2” meaning that there’s “moderate unrest”.The agency did not advise stopping tourism to the island, since this volcanic behavior is just part of White Island’s usual “style”.
实际上，监测新西兰火山、地震的科研机构GeoNet于11月8日将怀特岛的警报级别由“1”上调至“2”—— 级别“2”指的是“中度火山动荡”。该机构并未建议旅行社停止出行，是因为这种火山活动只是怀特岛的一贯“风格”。
“This sort of activity waxes and wanes all the time,” David Phillips, head of the School of Earth Sciences at the University of Melbourne, told NBC News. “And in most cases nothing happens.”
“这种活动时有起伏，”墨尔本大学地球科学学院院长大卫·菲利普斯在接受美国全国广播公司新闻频道采访时表示。“大多数情况都一切正常。”
Indeed, White Island’s only warning sign was its usual behavior.
的确，怀特岛唯一的警示就是其日常的活动状态。
This accident has triggered discussions about whether people should visit volcanoes at all. “It’s not a matter of if, it’s a matter of when and where,” Janine Krippner, a New Zealand volcanologist, told The Washington Post. “Having a true respect for all the hazards we have … is really important.”
这起事件引起了人们关于是否应该去看火山的讨论。“这与火山本身无关，关键是前往的时间和地点，”新西兰火山学家亚尼内·克里普纳在接受《华盛顿邮报》采访时表示。“对我们面临的所有危险抱有真正的敬意……这点真的很重要。”
But taking adventures to admire nature’s raw beauty has always been part of human desire. And with adventure comes risk.
但冒险领略大自然原生态之美向来是人们的一大追求。而冒险往往也伴随着风险。
Instead of staying miles away from volcanoes, Phillips said adventurers should ask themselves: “Where do you draw the line?”
菲利普斯表示，冒险家门应当扪心自问：“你的界线在哪里”，而不是远离火山。
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